US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen completed her task in Beijing today, potentially adding a small measure of relief to markets in the two economic superpowers this week. More balm is needed though. Here are the things to look out for.
The big mission. Yellen ended her four-day visit to Beijing on a positive note, claiming her trip had put US-China ties on a “surer footing,” even as she pressed Chinese officials on “unfair” economic practices.
The big divide. Wall Street forecasters were caught flat-footed by how the first half of 2023 unfolded in financial markets. They’ve rarely been more divided about what comes next.
The big glut. More than 20 new petrochemical projects will be completed across China this year, auguring a flood of plastic production that could depress global margins for years.
The big data. Key releases in the week ahead include inflation data in the US and Chinese's CPI, credit and exports, with the China numbers reinforcing the need for more monetary stimulus. Central banks in New Zealand and South Korea are expected to hold. Also look out for Singapore’s GDP and Japan’s factory output.
The small pause. Economic data has all but extinguished doubt about a Fed interest-rate increase at the end of this month. Now focus has shifted to the September meeting, with investors deeply divided. US core inflation data this week could sway the odds.
The big cut. Crypto enthusiasts are hopeful that the quadrennial “Halving,” when the amount of Bitcoin miners earn for validating transactions is halved, will extend the current rally. But the event, due in April 2024, is already forcing many miners to prepare for a cull as the reduced returns are unable to match the cost of energy their servers require.
The big results. India’s major tech companies begin reporting first-quarter results this week led by Tata Consultancy Services and HCL Technologies, with investors looking to see how constrained spending weighed on sales and profit margins. In the US, results from a clutch of big Wall Street banks will give clues on how the Fed’s hikes affected interest income.
The big summit. One thing Vladimir Putin’s war has succeeded in doing is making NATO very popular. When the military alliance meets for its annual summit in Lithuania this week, they will be joined by leaders from as far afield as Japan and New Zealand.
And finally, next year a new luxury train called La Dolce Vita will start winding through Italy from Rome to Sicily, with the most exclusive cabins costing at least €25,000 ($27,418) per night.
