As India’s election season picks up steam, Prime Minister Narendra Modi has turned his attention to a crucial bellwether state, where the nation’s two largest political parties are squaring off to win over 52 million voters.
Local polls on Wednesday in Karnataka, one of India’s wealthiest states, are a key test for Modi’s popularity among swing voters — and his resilience ahead of national elections next year. The ruling Bharatiya Janata Party is pounding the pavement to drum up support for the prime minister and his policies.
The results, expected on May 13, are likely to show a close race. Recent opinion polls indicate the possibility of a hung assembly, though most suggest the main opposition Indian National Congress has an edge. If Congress wins Karnataka, it would mark the party’s second time ousting the BJP in a decade. Last year it wrested control of the northern hill state of Himachal Pradesh.
Karnataka, home to India’s largest technology companies, is known for anti-incumbency. The BJP holds a narrow majority in the state government and the Congress is within striking distance. For weeks, the two parties have traded barbs over Congress leader Rahul Gandhi, who was recently disqualified from public office after a court convicted him of defaming Modi.
In the city of Kolar, an area built on silk manufacturing and gold mining, Modi made his presence felt. Late last month, a helicopter carrying the prime minister touched down near a large, tented stage, where thousands of supporters chanted his name and stood on their chairs.
“When a member of the royal family from Congress is out on bail, that party can’t take action against corrupt people,” Modi said, referring to Gandhi and his attempts to paint the BJP as unethical. The crowd cheered as Modi ticked off the ways his party would improve Kolar, including moving more jobs with multinational companies to the area.
But the message may not stick, even with the Modi brand. Karnataka has swung between parties for most of the last 40 years. The BJP has yet to secure a majority in the 224-seat legislative assembly from any election.
In 2019, the party only gained control of the state after defections from an alliance that included the Congress party. Though Modi’s national approval rating regularly hovers around 70%, his popularity is more muted in southern India, where regional politicians who speak local languages tend to poll better.
In Kolar, voters aired their concerns, including poor access to water, busted street lights, pot-holed roads and a lack of employment opportunities. The BJP has failed to stem rising food and utility prices. The Congress party has seized on that weakness, promising a monthly cash allowance to women and free electricity if voted into power.
Netrabati, 36, who goes by one name and sells coconuts for a living, said her household income of 15,000 rupees ($183.14) a month is barely enough to survive.
“Modi and the BJP haven’t done anything in Kolar or for us,” she said. “We don’t know whose progress the BJP is referring to, but we’re in distress.” She plans to vote for Congress, because it’s a party that “takes care of poor people like us.”
To win, the BJP must chip away at the perception that it runs a corrupt government in Karnataka. Congress has accused the party of demanding a 40% commission for approving contracts, which BJP leaders deny. And in March, the son of a party legislator was arrested for taking a bribe.
“A loss in Karnataka would cost the prime minister given his personal involvement in the campaign,” said Gilles Verniers, a senior fellow at the Centre for Policy Research, a think tank in New Delhi.
But the stakes are perhaps even higher for Congress. The party suffered humiliating defeats in the last two general elections, along with several local polls, and desperately needs a victory to prove its relevance at the national level.
The Karnataka elections are a litmus test of Gandhi’s popularity, as he tries to drum up sympathy with voters following his ouster from parliament. The Congress party is selling his legal troubles over old campaign speeches as evidence that freedom of speech is imperiled in Modi’s India.
Gandhi recently made his own trip to Kolar, where he made the remark in 2019 that led to his defamation conviction in March. The 52-year-old politician, scion of the famous Nehru-Gandhi dynasty, has appealed his two-year jail sentence.
“They think they will scare me by removing me from parliament and threatening me,” he told a crowd in Kolar. “You disqualify me, jail me or do whatever you want. I am not going to get scared.”
The electoral outcome is significant for India as it pushes to attract business from abroad. Karnataka has the second-highest per capita income among major states, contributing 8.2% to the nation’s economy. The new government will likely focus on improving living standards in the capital, Bengaluru, home to the offices of Intel Corp., Amazon and International Business Machines Corp.
Nalin Mehta, a political scientist and the author of a new book about the BJP, said the state elections are a “high-stakes prestige contest” for both parties.
Throughout the campaign season, the BJP has touched on religious nationalism, for instance, a hot button topic that will likely color next year’s national ballot. The Congress party has vowed to ban organizations like the Bajrang Dal, a Hindu right-wing outfit with ties to the BJP. By contrast, Modi has mocked that idea, telling voters to voice their support for the organization when they enter polling booths.
Karnataka will ultimately offer helpful lessons to Modi about what works with voters, Mehta said. “The outcome of this contest will influence much of the political discourse on the road to the 2024 national polls.”
