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Fed hawks, Fed doves: What U.S. central bankers say about policy

2023-10-25 01:58
By Ann Saphir The labels “dove” and “hawk” have long been used by central bank watchers to describe the monetary
Fed hawks, Fed doves: What U.S. central bankers say about policy

By Ann Saphir

The labels “dove” and “hawk” have long been used by central bank watchers to describe the monetary policy leanings of policymakers, with a dove more focused on risks to the labor market and a hawk more focused on the threat of inflation.

The topsy-turvy economic environment of the coronavirus pandemic sidelined those differences, turning U.S. Federal Reserve officials at first universally dovish as they sought to provide massive accommodation to a cratering economy, and then, when inflation surged, into hawks who uniformly backed aggressive rate hikes. Now, as Fed policymakers note improvement on inflation and some cooling in the labor market but also stronger-than-expected economic growth, divisions are more evident, with more varied choices: to raise rates again, skip for now but stay poised for more later, or take an extended pause.

All 12 regional Fed presidents discuss and debate monetary policy at Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings, held eight times a year, but only five cast votes at any given meeting, including the New York Fed president and four others who vote for one year at a time on a rotating schedule.

The following chart offers a stab at how officials currently stack up on their outlook for Fed policy and how to balance their goals of stable prices and full employment. The designations are based on comments and published remarks; for more on the thinking that shaped these hawk-dove designations, click on the photos in the graphic.

Over time Reuters has shifted policymaker designations based on fresh comments and developing circumstances - for a chart of how our counts have changed please scroll to the bottom of this story.

Dove Dovish Centrist Hawkish Hawk

Lisa Cook, John Williams, New Jerome Michelle

Governor, York Fed President, Powell, Fed Bowman,

permanent permanent voter: Chair, Governor,

voter: “If "Right now we need permanent permanent

confirmed, I to keep this voter: voter: "The

will stay restrictive stance Additional policy rate

focused on of policy in place evidence of may need to

inflation for some time." persistently rise further

until our job Oct. 18, 2023 above-trend and stay

is done.” June growth, or restrictive

21, 2023 that for some time

tightness in to return

the labor inflation to

market is no the FOMC's

longer goal." Oct.

easing, could 11, 2023

put further

progress on

inflation at

risk and

could warrant

further

tightening of

monetary

policy.” Oct.

19, 2023

Patrick Philip Jefferson, Christopher Loretta

Harker, Vice Chair: "We are Waller, Mester,

Philadelphia in a sensitive Governor, Cleveland Fed

Fed President, period of risk permanent President,

2023 voter: "I management, where voter: “We 2024 voter:

think this is we have to balance can wait, "We are likely

a time where the risk of not watch and see near or at a

we just sit having tightened how the holding point

for a little enough, against the economy on the funds

bit. It may be risk of policy evolves rate.” Oct.

for an being too before making 20, 2023

extended restrictive.” Oct. definitive

period; it may 9, 2023 moves on the

not. But let’s path of the

see how things policy rate."

evolve over Oct. 18, 2023

the next few

months.” Oct.

18, 2023

Raphael Michael Barr, Vice Neel

Bostic, Chair of Kashkari,

Atlanta Fed Supervision, Minneapolis

President, permanent voter: Fed

2024 voter: "I “In my view, the President,

would say late most important 2023 voter:

2024” is on question at this "Today I put

the table for point is not a 40%

an whether an probability"

interest-rate additional rate on the

cut. Oct. 20, increase is needed scenario that

2023 this year or not, “we would

but rather how long have to push

we will need to the federal

hold rates at a funds rate

sufficiently higher,

restrictive level potentially

to achieve our meaningfully

goals.” Oct. 2, higher.”

2023 Sept. 26,

2023

Austan Goolsbee, Lorie Logan,

Chicago Fed Dallas Fed

President, 2023 President,

voter: “It’s 2023 voter:

undeniable this “My focus is

(fall in U.S. on price

inflation) is a stability and

trend. It wasn’t a what further

one-month blip... tightening

we have to hope and may be needed

keep an eye out to to achieve

make sure that our mandate."

continues." Oct. Oct. 19, 2023

16, 2023

Mary Daly, San Thomas

Francisco Fed Barkin,

President, 2024 Richmond Fed

voter: “I would say President,

now the risks of 2024 voter:

how we balance "I am still

those things are looking to be

roughly balanced -- convinced,

over-tightening both that

versus demand is

under-tightening -- settling and

but we still have that any

high inflation and weakness is

the labor market's feeding

still strong." Oct. through to

10, 2023 inflation."

Oct. 17, 2023

Susan Collins,

Boston Fed

President, 2025

voter: "The

resilience we’re

seeing in the

economy is part of

the reason why,

from my view, the

rates likely need

to stay high for

longer." Oct. 12,

2023

Note: Fed policymakers began raising interest rates in March 2022 to bring down high inflation. Their most recent policy rate hike, to a range of 5.25%-5.5%, was in July.

Most policymakers as of September expected one more rate hike by year’s end. Neither Jeff Schmid, Kansas City Fed's president since August and a voter in 2025, nor Adriana Kugler, a permanent voter who was confirmed to the Fed Board in September, have yet made any substantive policy remarks. The St. Louis Fed has begun a search to succeed its president, James Bullard, who took a job in academia; the new chief will be a 2025 voter.

Below is a Reuters' count of policymakers in each category, heading into recent Fed meetings.

FOMC Date

Dove Dovish Centrist Hawkish Hawk

Oct/Nov '23 2 7 5

0 2

Sept '23 4 3 6

0 3

Jun

'23 3 3 8

0 3

March '23 0 2 3 10 2

Dec '22 0 4 1 12 2

(Reporting by Ann Saphir; Editing by Andrea Ricci)